Fluctuations in Uncertainty<xref ref-type="fn" rid="f1" ptype="fjep282153" citart="citart1"><sup></sup></xref>
نویسنده
چکیده
U ncertainty is an amorphous concept. It refl ects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of fi rms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? The types of exogenous shocks that can cause recessions—like wars, oil price jumps, and fi nancial panics—typically also increase uncertainty. Uncertainty also appears to endogenously increase during recessions, as lower economic growth induces greater micro and macro uncertainty. Third, do fl uctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Greater uncertainty appears to reduce the willingness of fi rms to hire and invest, and consumers to spend. However, there is also some evidence that uncertainty can stimulate research and development— faced with a more uncertain future, some fi rms appear more willing to innovate. Fluctuations in Uncertainty
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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
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